Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.398681 2.551554 2.713867 2.899839 3.108037 3.335132 3.603216
2025-06-01 2.157427 2.363159 2.592858 2.871079 3.202806 3.590801 4.086932
2025-06-08 2.017081 2.254044 2.528015 2.873425 3.305220 3.838782 4.567981
2025-06-15 1.926982 2.188212 2.498947 2.904073 3.431675 4.116638 5.113399
2025-06-22 1.819364 2.089918 2.418442 2.857534 3.447450 4.243610 5.463343
2025-06-29 1.726563 2.002072 2.342341 2.806712 3.447449 4.342218 5.778874
2025-07-06 1.639400 1.915339 2.260823 2.740392 3.416900 4.389396 6.016414
2025-07-13 1.603972 1.891622 2.258004 2.777729 3.532275 4.659611 6.655808
2025-07-20 1.576780 1.876306 2.264171 2.826164 3.665838 4.971049 7.427059
2025-07-27 1.552398 1.862829 2.271112 2.874798 3.802364 5.302610 8.311404
2025-08-03 1.506939 1.818828 2.233508 2.855505 3.830655 5.454752 8.875354
2025-08-10 1.464960 1.777560 2.197338 2.835390 3.854792 5.600877 9.461233
2025-08-17 1.422753 1.734972 2.158195 2.809667 3.869686 5.736199 10.072183
2025-08-24 1.383061 1.694338 2.119968 2.782932 3.880438 5.865130 10.709286
2025-08-31 1.354904 1.668485 2.101516 2.785193 3.939899 6.094960 11.685142
2025-09-07 1.336446 1.655309 2.100525 2.814287 4.047893 6.437333 13.119710
2025-09-14 1.298546 1.613325 2.055442 2.770107 4.020890 6.494213 13.720007
2025-09-21 1.261674 1.571680 2.009319 2.721833 3.982652 6.522026 14.243246
2025-09-28 1.222724 1.526002 1.955681 2.658792 3.912759 6.471932 14.486159
2025-10-05 1.212036 1.520467 1.961811 2.694290 4.029793 6.860679 16.542735
2025-10-12 1.204539 1.519154 1.974037 2.740313 4.170862 7.332472 19.329623
2025-10-19 1.197308 1.517885 1.986098 2.786499 4.316600 7.847186 22.892707
2025-10-26 1.174918 1.493640 1.961681 2.768180 4.330126 8.022543 24.892884